The Probability of Staying with an Employer

Economists are frequently asked by attorneys to calculate the present value of lost future earnings in wrongful employment termination cases. This analysis provides model estimates that forensic economists can use to project the probability that a worker would have remained with a particular employer, absent the termination. The model is estimated using longitudinal data on the weekly employment experiences of an older cohort of individuals born between 1957 and 1964 and surveyed from 1979 to 2018, and a younger cohort of individuals born between 1980 and 1984 and surveyed from 1997 to 2019. This analysis improves the literature by examining completed and on-going employment spells.